The following polls have been published for this seat. Click a poll to see more information about it. Please take note that in any given poll there are often many undecided voters(marked in grey). The more undecided voters there are, the less definitive I would say the poll is. Also be mindful of the methodology, the sample size, the grade the pollster has with FiveThirtyEight, and the age of the poll. I say all this because in 2024, polls have become a patently unreliable source of data, but even so, they have an outsized effect on the general level of news coverage, pundit assessment, and even fundraising for any given race. That said, I still believe it is possible to read valuable data from polls, if you know what to look for. The bottom line is that polls should absolutely not be taken as gospel. They are a tool in the psephologist's toolbox.
Gallego(49.0%)
Lake(36.0%)
15%
579
425
177
5/19/24
Likely Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1183
Gallego(45.0%)
Lake(41.0%)
14%
281
256
87
5/13/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 626
Gallego(46.0%)
Lake(43.0%)
11%
287
269
68
5/13/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 626
Gallego(48.1%)
Lake(43.9%)
8%
264
241
44
5/7/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 550
Gallego(45.3%)
Lake(43.1%)
11.6%
452
431
116
4/30/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1000
Gallego(39.0%)
Lake(34.0%)
Williams(10.0%)
17%
234
204
60
102
4/16/24
Likely Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 600
Gallego(36.0%)
Lake(28.0%)
36%
181
140
181
4/2/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 503
Gallego(50.6%)
Lake(49.4%)
506
494
3/20/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Lake(45.0%)
Gallego(42.0%)
13%
450
420
130
2/28/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 1001
Lake(37.0%)
Gallego(33.0%)
Sinema(21.0%)
9%
370
330
210
90
2/28/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 1001
Gallego(47.0%)
Lake(37.0%)
16%
470
370
160
2/22/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1002
Gallego(34.0%)
Lake(31.0%)
Sinema(23.0%)
12%
340
310
230
120
2/22/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1002
Gallego(35.9%)
Lake(30.0%)
Sinema(20.6%)
13.5%
359
300
206
134
2/22/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Gallego(45.8%)
Lake(38.8%)
15.4%
457
387
154
2/22/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Lake(46.0%)
Gallego(44.0%)
10%
230
220
50
2/2/24
Registered Voters
Live Phone/Text
Sample: 500
Lake(40.0%)
Gallego(39.0%)
Sinema(13.0%)
8%
200
195
65
40
2/2/24
Registered Voters
Live Phone/Text
Sample: 500
Gallego(36.0%)
Lake(35.0%)
Sinema(17.0%)
12%
212
206
100
70
1/10/24
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 590
Lake(46.0%)
Gallego(45.0%)
9%
271
265
53
1/10/24
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 590
Lake(41.0%)
Gallego(35.0%)
Sinema(16.0%)
8%
284
242
111
55
12/19/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 694
Gallego(39.0%)
Lake(34.0%)
Sinema(17.0%)
10%
312
272
136
80
12/12/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 800
Gallego(39.0%)
Lake(33.0%)
Sinema(29.0%)
393
333
292
11/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1010
Gallego(36.0%)
Lamb(32.0%)
Sinema(32.0%)
363
323
323
11/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1010
Gallego(41.0%)
Lake(37.0%)
Sinema(17.0%)
5%
N/A
N/A
N/A
0
11/7/23
No Classification
Sample: Not published
Gallego(49.0%)
Lake(44.0%)
7%
N/A
N/A
0
11/7/23
No Classification
Sample: Not published
Lake(37.0%)
Gallego(36.0%)
Sinema(15.0%)
12%
222
216
90
72
11/7/23
Likely Voters
Sample: 600
Gallego(46.0%)
Lake(43.0%)
11%
276
258
66
11/7/23
Likely Voters
Sample: 600
Lake(37.0%)
Gallego(33.0%)
Sinema(19.0%)
11%
148
132
76
44
10/10/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 400
Lake(44.0%)
Gallego(44.0%)
12%
176
176
48
10/10/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 400
Gallego(41.0%)
Lake(36.0%)
Sinema(15.0%)
8%
214
187
78
41
10/10/23
Likely Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 522
Gallego(40.0%)
Lamb(31.0%)
Sinema(16.0%)
13%
208
161
83
67
10/10/23
Likely Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 522
Gallego(41.0%)
Masters(31.0%)
Sinema(17.0%)
11%
214
161
88
57
10/10/23
Likely Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 522
Gallego(48.0%)
Lake(43.0%)
9%
250
224
46
10/10/23
Likely Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 522
Gallego(35.5%)
Lamb(29.1%)
Sinema(20.6%)
14.8%
474
389
275
197
8/8/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1337
Lamb(41.9%)
Gallego(41.7%)
16.4%
560
557
219
8/8/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1337
Gallego(36.8%)
Sinema(26.0%)
Wright(25.0%)
12.2%
492
347
334
163
8/8/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1337
Gallego(41.0%)
Wright(38.1%)
20.9%
548
509
279
8/8/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1337
Gallego(34.0%)
Sinema(26.0%)
Lake(25.0%)
15%
340
260
250
150
8/3/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(32.0%)
Sinema(28.0%)
Masters(24.0%)
16%
320
280
240
160
8/3/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(33.0%)
Lamb(25.0%)
Sinema(24.0%)
18%
330
250
240
180
8/3/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(45.0%)
Lake(35.0%)
20%
450
350
200
8/3/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(44.0%)
Masters(36.0%)
20%
440
360
200
8/3/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(40.0%)
Lamb(36.0%)
24%
400
360
240
8/3/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(42.0%)
Lake(35.0%)
Sinema(14.0%)
9%
234
195
78
50
4/24/23
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 559
Gallego(43.0%)
Lamb(33.0%)
Sinema(15.0%)
9%
240
184
83
50
4/24/23
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 559
Gallego(43.0%)
Lamon(27.0%)
Sinema(16.0%)
14%
240
150
89
78
4/24/23
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 559
Gallego(34.0%)
Lake(26.0%)
Sinema(19.0%)
21%
340
260
190
210
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(33.0%)
Masters(24.0%)
Sinema(22.0%)
21%
330
240
220
210
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(31.0%)
Taylor Robson(24.0%)
Sinema(21.0%)
24%
310
240
210
240
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(32.0%)
Ducey(27.0%)
Sinema(17.0%)
24%
320
270
170
240
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(43.0%)
Lake(33.0%)
24%
430
330
240
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(43.0%)
Masters(32.0%)
25%
430
320
250
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(36.0%)
Taylor Robson(32.0%)
32%
360
320
320
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(38.0%)
Ducey(34.0%)
28%
380
340
280
2/16/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1000
Gallego(50.0%)
Lake(45.0%)
5%
400
360
40
2/1/23
Likely Voters
Sample: 800
Lake(36.0%)
Gallego(36.0%)
Sinema(24.0%)
4%
288
288
192
32
2/1/23
Likely Voters
Sample: 800
Gallego(37.0%)
Ducey(31.0%)
Sinema(27.0%)
5%
296
248
216
40
2/1/23
Likely Voters
Sample: 800
Lake(35.7%)
Gallego(31.9%)
Sinema(13.8%)
18.6%
220
197
85
114
1/11/23
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 618
Lake(41.0%)
Gallego(40.0%)
Sinema(13.0%)
6%
277
271
88
40
12/22/22
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 678
Gallego(48.0%)
Lake(47.0%)
5%
325
318
33
12/22/22
Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 678