2026 Election House Game-out
The House of Representatives is currently controlled by the Republican Party, with 218 seats to the Democratic Party's 215 seats. Two seats(FL01 and FL06) are currently unoccupied, but will be filled in special elections scheduled for April 2025. A swing of just three seats in 2026 would flip the chamber to Democratic control. According to current predictions by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, enough seats are realistically in play that there is currently no telling who will control the House when the 120th Congress is sworn in on January 3rd, 2027. The table below shows the current partisan makeup of the House, along with the CPR's assessment of each race. As the general election draws closer, their ratings for each race will be updated, and this table and the flip analysis chart below will be automatically updated with them, so please check back frequently. To learn more about the analysis behind the CPR Race Ratings, visit www.cookpolitical.com.
Toss Up: 18
Scenarios
Straight PVI: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. Even seats are defended by incumbents.
211 Democrats
224 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 7 seat(s).
Straight PVI with flipped evens: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. All seats at 0 +/- are flipped by challengers.
212 Democrats
223 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 6 seat(s).
Tossups Defended Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are defended by incumbents, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
213 Democrats
218 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 3 seat(s).
Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by challengers, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
211 Democrats
220 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 5 seat(s).
D Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Democratic Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Republican challengers, Republican districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
203 Democrats
228 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 13 seat(s).
R Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Republican Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Democratic challengers, Democratic districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
221 Democrats
210 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 6 seat(s).
PVI moves 1 point D: Districts elect representatives who match a 1-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
219 Democrats
216 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 2 seat(s).
PVI moves 2 points D: Districts elect representatives who match a 2-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
225 Democrats
210 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 8 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with abortion questions: Districts in states where there is an abortion question(currently Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
213 Democrats
222 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 5 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with possible abortion questions: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
216 Democrats
219 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 2 seat(s).
What I think will happen: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 7-point shift in Democratic favor. Democrats defend districts rated, "Toss Up," and flip Republican seats rated "Toss Up" in California, Arizona, and Oregon. Republicans flip seats from NC gerrymander. Democrats flip redistricted AL02. Remaining even districts are defended.
235 Democrats
196 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 20 seat(s).
Robert B. Aderholt (R)
R+33
Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
R+23
Salud O. Carbajal (D)
D+13
George Whitesides (D)
D+3
Gilbert Ray Cisneros (D)
D+10
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
D+33
Linda T. Sánchez (D)
D+10
Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)
D+19
Brittany Pettersen (D)
D+8
John H. Rutherford (R)
R+10
Mike Haridopolos (R)
R+11
Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
R+17
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
R+5
W. Gregory Steube (R)
R+11
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
D+22
Frederica S. Wilson (D)
D+18
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
D+5
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
R+16
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
R+6
Carlos A. Gimenez (R)
R+10
Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R)
R+8
Sanford D. Bishop (D)
D+4
Henry C. "Hank" Johnson (D)
D+27
Richard McCormick (R)
R+11
Barry Loudermilk (R)
R+12
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
R+19
Michael K. Simpson (R)
R+13
Jonathan L. Jackson (D)
D+18
Delia C. Ramirez (D)
D+17
Jesús G. "Chuy" GarcÃa (D)
D+17
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
D+5
Janice D. Schakowsky (D)
D+19
Bradley Scott Schneider (D)
D+12
Marlin A. Stutzman (R)
R+16
Jefferson Shreve (R)
R+16
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
R+4
Johnny Olszewski (D)
D+10
April McClain Delaney (D)
D+3
James P. McGovern (D)
D+13
Jake Auchincloss (D)
D+11
Katherine M. Clark (D)
D+24
Stephen F. Lynch (D)
D+15
William R. Keating (D)
D+6
John R. Moolenaar (R)
R+15
Hillary J. Scholten (D)
D+4
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
R+1
Michelle Fischbach (R)
R+18
Bennie G. Thompson (D)
D+11
Maggie Goodlander (D)
D+2
Jefferson Van Drew (R)
R+5
Christopher H. Smith (R)
R+14
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
D+13
Melanie A. Stansbury (D)
D+7
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
D+3
Andrew R. Garbarino (R)
R+6
Thomas R. Suozzi (D)
EVEN
Gregory W. Meeks (D)
D+24
Nydia M. Velázquez (D)
D+25
Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)
D+24
Yvette D. Clarke (D)
D+22
Daniel S. Goldman (D)
D+32
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
R+10
Adriano Espaillat (D)
D+32
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
D+19
Elise M. Stefanik (R)
R+10
Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)
R+10
Joseph D. Morelle (D)
D+10
Timothy M. Kennedy (D)
D+11
Gregory F. Murphy (R)
R+10
Valerie P. Foushee (D)
D+23
Michael A. Rulli (R)
R+16
Michael R. Turner (R)
R+3
Shontel M. Brown (D)
D+28
Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
EVEN
Stephanie I. Bice (R)
R+9
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
D+20
Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)
D+1
Brendan F. Boyle (D)
D+19
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
D+15
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
R+17
Christopher R. Deluzio (D)
D+3
William R. Timmons (R)
R+11
James E. Clyburn (D)
D+13
Diana Harshbarger (R)
R+29
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R)
R+18
Scott DesJarlais (R)
R+21
Michael T. McCaul (R)
R+12
Randy K. Sr. Weber (R)
R+17
Monica De La Cruz (R)
R+7
Veronica Escobar (D)
D+11
Jodey C. Arrington (R)
R+25
Sylvia R. Garcia (D)
D+12
Jasmine Crockett (D)
D+25
Vicente Gonzalez (D)
EVEN
Robert J. Wittman (R)
R+3
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
EVEN
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
D+18
Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
D+17
H. Morgan Griffith (R)
R+22
Suhas Subramanyam (D)
D+6
Gerald E. Connolly (D)
D+18
Suzan K. DelBene (D)
D+15
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
R+2
Michael Baumgartner (R)
R+5
Marilyn Strickland (D)
D+9
Derrick Van Orden (R)
R+3
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
R+11
Thomas P. Tiffany (R)
R+11
Harriet M. Hageman (R)
R+23