The following polls have been published for this seat. Click a poll to see more information about it. Please take note that in any given poll there are often many undecided voters(marked in grey). The more undecided voters there are, the less definitive I would say the poll is. Also be mindful of the methodology, the sample size, the grade the pollster has with FiveThirtyEight, and the age of the poll. I say all this because in 2024, polls have become a patently unreliable source of data, but even so, they have an outsized effect on the general level of news coverage, pundit assessment, and even fundraising for any given race. That said, I still believe it is possible to read valuable data from polls, if you know what to look for. The bottom line is that polls should absolutely not be taken as gospel. They are a tool in the psephologist's toolbox.
Sheehy(50.0%)
Tester(45.0%)
5%
285
256
28
7/10/24
Likely Voters
Sample: 570
Sheehy(47.2%)
Tester(41.1%)
Daoud(2.1%)
Downey(1.2%)
8.4%
306
266
13
7
54
6/28/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 649
Sheehy(46.0%)
Tester(43.0%)
Daoud(4.0%)
7%
230
215
20
35
6/26/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 500
Sheehy(48.0%)
Tester(48.0%)
4%
240
240
20
6/26/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 500
Sheehy(46.0%)
Tester(46.0%)
Daoud(2.0%)
Downey(2.0%)
4%
230
230
10
10
20
6/20/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 500
Sheehy(48.0%)
Tester(45.0%)
7%
241
226
35
4/8/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text/App Panel
Sample: 503
Tester(44.0%)
Sheehy(42.4%)
13.6%
440
424
136
3/6/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel/Email/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1000
Tester(49.0%)
Sheehy(40.0%)
11%
269
219
60
2/19/24
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 549
Tester(49.0%)
Rosendale(40.0%)
11%
269
219
60
2/19/24
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 549
Tester(50.0%)
Johnson(35.0%)
15%
274
192
82
2/19/24
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 549
Tester(38.5%)
Sheehy(34.8%)
26.7%
172
155
119
10/17/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel/Email
Sample: 447
Sheehy(46.0%)
Tester(42.0%)
12%
340
311
88
8/31/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text/Online Ad
Sample: 741
Rosendale(46.0%)
Tester(43.0%)
11%
340
318
81
8/31/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text/Online Ad
Sample: 741
Rosendale(46.0%)
Tester(41.0%)
13%
276
245
78
3/8/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 600
Tester(46.0%)
Zinke(40.0%)
14%
245
213
74
2/13/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text
Sample: 534
Tester(45.0%)
Rosendale(40.0%)
15%
240
213
80
2/13/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text
Sample: 534
Gianforte(45.0%)
Tester(45.0%)
10%
240
240
53
2/13/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text
Sample: 534