The following polls have been published for this seat. Click a poll to see more information about it. Please take note that in any given poll there are often many undecided voters(marked in grey). The more undecided voters there are, the less definitive I would say the poll is. Also be mindful of the methodology, the sample size, the grade the pollster has with FiveThirtyEight, and the age of the poll. I say all this because in 2024, polls have become a patently unreliable source of data, but even so, they have an outsized effect on the general level of news coverage, pundit assessment, and even fundraising for any given race. That said, I still believe it is possible to read valuable data from polls, if you know what to look for. The bottom line is that polls should absolutely not be taken as gospel. They are a tool in the psephologist's toolbox.
Brown(45.4%)
Dolan(41.5%)
13.1%
320
292
92
3/16/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Text-to-Web
Sample: 705
Brown(47.4%)
Moreno(36.3%)
16.3%
334
255
114
3/16/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Text-to-Web
Sample: 705
Brown(48.0%)
LaRose(36.5%)
15.5%
338
257
109
3/16/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Text-to-Web
Sample: 705
Dolan(43.1%)
Brown(41.1%)
15.8%
559
533
205
3/15/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1298
Brown(44.6%)
LaRose(39.8%)
15.6%
578
516
202
3/15/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1298
Brown(44.6%)
Moreno(40.5%)
14.9%
578
525
193
3/15/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1298
Brown(43.0%)
Moreno(37.0%)
20%
533
459
248
3/14/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1241
Brown(42.0%)
Dolan(39.0%)
19%
521
483
235
3/14/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1241
Brown(44.0%)
LaRose(36.0%)
20%
546
446
248
3/14/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1241
Brown(37.0%)
Dolan(34.0%)
29%
481
442
377
3/13/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1300
Brown(38.6%)
LaRose(32.8%)
28.6%
501
426
371
3/13/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1300
Brown(38.7%)
Moreno(34.1%)
27.2%
503
443
353
3/13/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1300
Brown(38.1%)
Dolan(37.1%)
24.8%
702
684
457
2/1/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 1844
Brown(39.0%)
LaRose(36.7%)
24.3%
719
676
448
2/1/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 1844
Brown(39.4%)
Moreno(37.1%)
23.5%
726
684
433
2/1/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 1844
Brown(40.5%)
Dolan(37.7%)
21.8%
405
377
217
11/16/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Brown(40.9%)
LaRose(35.6%)
23.5%
409
356
235
11/16/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Brown(42.3%)
Moreno(31.7%)
26%
423
317
260
11/16/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Brown(47.0%)
Dolan(46.0%)
7%
280
274
41
11/10/23
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 597
LaRose(46.0%)
Brown(46.0%)
8%
274
274
47
11/10/23
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 597
Brown(47.0%)
Moreno(44.0%)
9%
280
262
53
11/10/23
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 597
Brown(48.0%)
Mutchler(43.0%)
9%
286
256
53
11/10/23
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 597
Brown(48.0%)
Moreno(26.0%)
26%
320
173
173
11/2/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 668
Brown(45.0%)
Dolan(30.0%)
25%
300
200
167
11/2/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 668
Brown(44.0%)
LaRose(31.0%)
25%
293
207
167
11/2/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 668
Dolan(38.3%)
Brown(36.3%)
25.4%
167
158
111
10/10/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 438
LaRose(38.8%)
Brown(37.8%)
23.4%
169
165
102
10/10/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 438
Brown(34.9%)
Moreno(32.7%)
32.4%
152
143
141
10/10/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 438
Brown(44.9%)
Moreno(28.3%)
26.8%
303
191
180
7/28/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 675
Brown(44.8%)
Dolan(32.9%)
22.3%
302
222
150
7/28/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 675
Brown(45.1%)
LaRose(32.0%)
22.9%
304
216
154
7/28/23
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 675
Brown(46.2%)
Dolan(42.8%)
11%
231
214
55
7/18/23
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 500
Brown(45.0%)
LaRose(44.6%)
10.4%
225
223
51
7/18/23
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 500
Brown(48.4%)
Moreno(41.2%)
10.4%
242
206
51
7/18/23
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 500
Brown(44.6%)
Dolan(44.1%)
11.3%
359
355
90
6/29/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 805
Brown(43.9%)
LaRose(41.6%)
14.5%
353
334
116
6/29/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 805
Brown(45.6%)
Moreno(42.2%)
12.2%
367
339
98
6/29/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 805