The following polls have been published for this seat. Click a poll to see more information about it. Please take note that in any given poll there are often many undecided voters(marked in grey). The more undecided voters there are, the less definitive I would say the poll is. Also be mindful of the methodology, the sample size, the grade the pollster has with FiveThirtyEight, and the age of the poll. I say all this because in 2024, polls have become a patently unreliable source of data, but even so, they have an outsized effect on the general level of news coverage, pundit assessment, and even fundraising for any given race. That said, I still believe it is possible to read valuable data from polls, if you know what to look for. The bottom line is that polls should absolutely not be taken as gospel. They are a tool in the psephologist's toolbox.
Casey(46.0%)
McCormick(41.0%)
13%
470
419
132
5/13/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 1023
Casey(46.0%)
McCormick(44.0%)
10%
470
450
102
5/13/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 1023
Casey(48.0%)
McCormick(44.0%)
8%
288
264
48
5/7/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 600
Casey(45.0%)
McCormick(41.0%)
14%
187
170
58
5/7/24
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 417
Casey(46.2%)
McCormick(42.1%)
11.7%
462
421
116
4/30/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1000
Casey(46.0%)
McCormick(39.0%)
15%
600
509
195
4/29/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1306
Casey(47.0%)
McCormick(30.0%)
23%
376
240
184
4/9/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 800
Casey(46.0%)
McCormick(39.0%)
15%
198
168
64
4/4/24
Registered Voters
Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone
Sample: 431
Casey(48.0%)
McCormick(42.0%)
10%
216
189
45
3/26/24
Likely Voters
Sample: 450
Casey(52.3%)
McCormick(47.7%)
523
477
3/14/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1000
Casey(47.0%)
McCormick(40.0%)
13%
376
320
104
2/26/24
Likely Voters
Sample: 800
Casey(48.8%)
McCormick(38.5%)
12.7%
488
385
127
2/20/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Casey(38.0%)
McCormick(37.0%)
25%
190
185
125
2/9/24
Registered Voters
Text
Sample: 500
Casey(47.0%)
McCormick(35.0%)
18%
472
352
181
2/1/24
Registered Voters
Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone
Sample: 1006
Casey(45.9%)
McCormick(42.1%)
12%
341
313
89
1/23/24
Likely Voters
Sample: 745
Casey(53.0%)
McCormick(43.0%)
4%
890
722
67
1/10/24
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 1680
Casey(44.0%)
McCormick(40.0%)
16%
N/A
N/A
0
1/8/24
Registered Voters
Text-to-Web/Online Ad
Sample: Not published
Casey(44.0%)
McCormick(41.0%)
15%
N/A
N/A
0
1/8/24
Registered Voters
Text-to-Web/Online Ad
Sample: Not published
Casey(42.0%)
McCormick(27.0%)
31%
336
216
248
12/19/23
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 800
Casey(46.0%)
McCormick(39.0%)
15%
401
340
130
10/26/23
Registered Voters
Sample: 873
Casey(41.2%)
McCormick(33.3%)
25.5%
177
143
109
10/11/23
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 430
Casey(50.0%)
McCormick(44.0%)
6%
862
759
103
10/4/23
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 1725
Casey(53.0%)
McCormick(41.0%)
6%
371
287
42
5/10/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 700
Casey(42.0%)
McCormick(35.0%)
23%
120
100
65
4/13/23
Registered Voters
Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone
Sample: 286
Casey(47.0%)
Mastriano(31.0%)
22%
134
88
62
4/13/23
Registered Voters
Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone
Sample: 286