The following polls have been published for this seat. Click a poll to see more information about it. Please take note that in any given poll there are often many undecided voters(marked in grey). The more undecided voters there are, the less definitive I would say the poll is. Also be mindful of the methodology, the sample size, the grade the pollster has with FiveThirtyEight, and the age of the poll. I say all this because in 2024, polls have become a patently unreliable source of data, but even so, they have an outsized effect on the general level of news coverage, pundit assessment, and even fundraising for any given race. That said, I still believe it is possible to read valuable data from polls, if you know what to look for. The bottom line is that polls should absolutely not be taken as gospel. They are a tool in the psephologist's toolbox.
Baldwin(48.5%)
Hovde(43.4%)
8.1%
409
366
68
7/25/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 845
Baldwin(51.0%)
Hovde(43.0%)
6%
279
235
32
7/22/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Text
Sample: 548
Baldwin(46.0%)
Hovde(42.0%)
12%
276
252
72
7/16/24
Registered Voters
Live Phone/Online Panel
Sample: 600
Baldwin(49.0%)
Hovde(41.0%)
10%
294
245
60
7/12/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 600
Baldwin(50.0%)
Hovde(45.0%)
5%
300
270
30
7/9/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 600
Hovde(48.0%)
Baldwin(48.0%)
4%
284
284
23
7/10/24
Likely Voters
Sample: 593
Baldwin(50.0%)
Hovde(38.0%)
12%
245
186
58
7/7/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 490
Baldwin(52.0%)
Hovde(47.0%)
1%
407
368
7
6/26/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Email
Sample: 784
Baldwin(52.0%)
Hovde(47.0%)
1%
407
368
7
6/26/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Email
Sample: 784
Baldwin(46.2%)
Hovde(43.7%)
10.1%
462
437
100
6/20/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1000
Baldwin(43.0%)
Hovde(38.0%)
19%
124
110
55
6/4/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 290
Baldwin(47.0%)
Hovde(39.0%)
14%
136
113
40
6/4/24
Likely Voters
IVR/Online Panel
Sample: 290
Baldwin(49.0%)
Hovde(37.0%)
14%
246
186
70
5/30/24
Likely Voters
Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 503
Baldwin(49.0%)
Hovde(40.0%)
11%
300
245
67
5/13/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 614
Baldwin(49.0%)
Hovde(42.0%)
9%
300
257
55
5/13/24
Likely Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 614
Baldwin(54.0%)
Hovde(42.0%)
4%
786
611
58
5/8/24
Registered Voters
Live Phone
Sample: 1457
Baldwin(46.3%)
Hovde(42.8%)
10.9%
462
428
109
4/30/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web
Sample: 1000
Baldwin(48.0%)
Hovde(41.0%)
11%
597
510
136
4/29/24
Registered Voters
Online Panel
Sample: 1245
Baldwin(52.0%)
Hovde(47.0%)
1%
367
332
7
4/17/24
Likely Voters
Probability Panel
Sample: 707
Hovde(50.0%)
Baldwin(50.0%)
353
353
4/17/24
Likely Voters
Probability Panel
Sample: 707
Baldwin(44.8%)
Hovde(41.7%)
13.5%
447
417
135
3/21/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Email
Sample: 1000
Baldwin(46.2%)
Hovde(38.5%)
15.3%
462
385
152
2/27/24
Registered Voters
IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web/Email
Sample: 1000
Baldwin(47.0%)
Gallagher(46.0%)
7%
235
230
35
6/2/23
Likely Voters
Live Phone/Text-to-Web
Sample: 500