Solid R: 2
Scenarios
Straight PVI: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. Even seats are defended by incumbents.
208 Democrats
226 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
Straight PVI with flipped evens: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. All seats at 0 +/- are flipped by challengers.
203 Democrats
231 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 14 seat(s).
Tossups Defended Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are defended by incumbents, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
209 Democrats
223 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 7 seat(s).
Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by challengers, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
213 Democrats
219 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 3 seat(s).
D Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Democratic Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Republican challengers, Republican districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
203 Democrats
229 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 13 seat(s).
R Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Republican Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Democratic challengers, Democratic districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
219 Democrats
213 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 3 seat(s).
PVI moves 1 point D: Districts elect representatives who match a 1-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
214 Democrats
220 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 3 seat(s).
PVI moves 2 points D: Districts elect representatives who match a 2-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
288 Democrats
147 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 71 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with abortion questions: Districts in states where there is an abortion question(currently Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
211 Democrats
223 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 6 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with possible abortion questions: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
215 Democrats
219 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 2 seat(s).
What I think will happen: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 7-point shift in Democratic favor. Democrats defend districts rated, "Toss Up," and flip Republican seats rated "Toss Up" in California, Arizona, and Oregon. Republicans flip seats from NC gerrymander. Democrats flip redistricted AL02. Remaining even districts are defended.
234 Democrats
198 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 18 seat(s).
Robert B. Aderholt (R)
R+33
Nicholas J. Begich (R)
R+6
Abraham J. Hamadeh (R)
R+8
Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
R+23
Doug LaMalfa (R)
Republican
Jared Huffman (D)
Democrat
Kevin Kiley (R)
Republican
Mike Thompson (D)
Democrat
Tom McClintock (R)
Republican
Doris O. Matsui (D)
Democrat
John Garamendi (D)
Democrat
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Democrat
Nancy Pelosi (D)
Democrat
Lateefah Simon (D)
Democrat
Eric Swalwell (D)
Democrat
Kevin Mullin (D)
Democrat
Sam T. Liccardo (D)
Democrat
Jimmy Panetta (D)
Democrat
Vince Fong (R)
Republican
David G. Valadao (R)
Republican
Jay Obernolte (R)
Republican
Salud O. Carbajal (D)
Democrat
Julia Brownley (D)
Democrat
George Whitesides (D)
Democrat
Luz M. Rivas (D)
Democrat
Laura Friedman (D)
Democrat
Gilbert Ray Cisneros (D)
Democrat
Brad Sherman (D)
Democrat
Pete Aguilar (D)
Democrat
Norma J. Torres (D)
Democrat
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
Democrat
Linda T. Sánchez (D)
Democrat
Ken Calvert (R)
Republican
Robert Garcia (D)
Democrat
Maxine Waters (D)
Democrat
Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)
Democrat
J. Luis Correa (D)
Democrat
Darrell Issa (R)
Republican
Scott H. Peters (D)
Democrat
Brittany Pettersen (D)
D+8
John H. Rutherford (R)
R+10
Mike Haridopolos (R)
R+11
Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
R+17
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
R+5
W. Gregory Steube (R)
R+11
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
D+22
Frederica S. Wilson (D)
D+18
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
D+5
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
R+16
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
R+6
Carlos A. Gimenez (R)
R+10
Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R)
R+8
Sanford D. Bishop (D)
D+4
Henry C. "Hank" Johnson (D)
D+27
Richard McCormick (R)
R+11
Barry Loudermilk (R)
R+12
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
R+19
Michael K. Simpson (R)
R+13
Jonathan L. Jackson (D)
D+18
Delia C. Ramirez (D)
D+17
Jesús G. "Chuy" García (D)
D+17
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
D+5
Janice D. Schakowsky (D)
D+19
Bradley Scott Schneider (D)
D+12
Marlin A. Stutzman (R)
R+16
Jefferson Shreve (R)
R+16
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
R+4
Johnny Olszewski (D)
D+10
April McClain Delaney (D)
D+3
James P. McGovern (D)
D+13
Jake Auchincloss (D)
D+11
Katherine M. Clark (D)
D+24
Stephen F. Lynch (D)
D+15
William R. Keating (D)
D+6
John R. Moolenaar (R)
R+15
Hillary J. Scholten (D)
D+4
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
R+1
Michelle Fischbach (R)
R+18
Bennie G. Thompson (D)
D+11
Sam Graves (R)
Republican
Maggie Goodlander (D)
D+2
Jefferson Van Drew (R)
R+5
Herbert C. Conaway (D)
D+5
Christopher H. Smith (R)
R+14
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
D+13
Melanie A. Stansbury (D)
D+7
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
D+3
Andrew R. Garbarino (R)
R+6
Thomas R. Suozzi (D)
EVEN
Gregory W. Meeks (D)
D+24
Nydia M. Velázquez (D)
D+25
Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)
D+24
Yvette D. Clarke (D)
D+22
Daniel S. Goldman (D)
D+32
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
R+10
Adriano Espaillat (D)
D+32
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
D+19
Elise M. Stefanik (R)
R+10
Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)
R+10
Joseph D. Morelle (D)
D+10
Timothy M. Kennedy (D)
D+11
Gregory F. Murphy (R)
R+6
Valerie P. Foushee (D)
D+23
Addison P. McDowell (R)
R+9
Julie Fedorchak (R)
Republican
Greg Landsman (D)
Democrat
David J. Taylor (R)
Republican
Joyce Beatty (D)
Democrat
Jim Jordan (R)
Republican
Robert E. Latta (R)
Republican
Michael A. Rulli (R)
Republican
Max L. Miller (R)
Republican
Warren Davidson (R)
Republican
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Democrat
Michael R. Turner (R)
Republican
Shontel M. Brown (D)
Democrat
Troy Balderson (R)
Republican
Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
Democrat
David P. Joyce (R)
Republican
Mike Carey (R)
Republican
Kevin Hern (R)
Republican
Josh Brecheen (R)
Republican
Frank D. Lucas (R)
Republican
Stephanie I. Bice (R)
Republican
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
Democrat
Cliff Bentz (R)
Republican
Maxine Dexter (D)
Democrat
Val T. Hoyle (D)
Democrat
Janelle S. Bynum (D)
Democrat
Andrea Salinas (D)
Democrat
Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)
Republican
Brendan F. Boyle (D)
Democrat
Dwight Evans (D)
Democrat
Madeleine Dean (D)
Democrat
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
Democrat
Chrissy Houlahan (D)
Democrat
Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Republican
Robert P. Bresnahan (R)
Republican
Daniel Meuser (R)
Republican
Scott Perry (R)
Republican
Lloyd Smucker (R)
Republican
Summer L. Lee (D)
Democrat
John Joyce (R)
Republican
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
Republican
Glenn Thompson (R)
Republican
Mike Kelly (R)
Republican
Christopher R. Deluzio (D)
Democrat
Seth Magaziner (D)
Democrat
Nancy Mace (R)
Republican
Joe Wilson (R)
Republican
Sheri Biggs (R)
Republican
William R. Timmons (R)
Republican
Ralph Norman (R)
Republican
James E. Clyburn (D)
Democrat
Russell Fry (R)
Republican
Dusty Johnson (R)
Republican
Diana Harshbarger (R)
Republican
Tim Burchett (R)
Republican
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R)
Republican
Scott DesJarlais (R)
Republican
Andrew Ogles (R)
Republican
John W. Rose (R)
Republican
Mark E. Green (R)
Republican
David Kustoff (R)
Republican
Michael T. McCaul (R)
R+10
Craig A. Goldman (R)
R+11
Randy K. Sr. Weber (R)
R+12
Monica De La Cruz (R)
R+7
Veronica Escobar (D)
D+11
Jodey C. Arrington (R)
R+25
Sylvia R. Garcia (D)
D+17
Jasmine Crockett (D)
D+25
Blake D. Moore (R)
Republican
Celeste Maloy (R)
Republican
Mike Kennedy (R)
Republican
Burgess Owens (R)
Republican
Becca Balint (D)
Democrat
Robert J. Wittman (R)
Republican
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
Republican
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
Democrat
Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
Democrat
John J. McGuire (R)
Republican
Eugene Simon Vindman (D)
Democrat
Donald S. Beyer (D)
Democrat
H. Morgan Griffith (R)
Republican
Suhas Subramanyam (D)
Democrat
Suzan K. DelBene (D)
Democrat
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Democrat
Dan Newhouse (R)
Republican
Michael Baumgartner (R)
Republican
Emily Randall (D)
Democrat
Pramila Jayapal (D)
Democrat
Marilyn Strickland (D)
Democrat
Carol D. Miller (R)
Republican
Riley M. Moore (R)
Republican
Bryan Steil (R)
Republican
Derrick Van Orden (R)
Republican
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
Republican
Glenn Grothman (R)
Republican
Thomas P. Tiffany (R)
Republican
Harriet M. Hageman (R)
Republican