Solid R: 2
Scenarios
Straight PVI: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. Even seats are defended by incumbents.
209 Democrats
226 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
Straight PVI with flipped evens: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. All seats at 0 +/- are flipped by challengers.
187 Democrats
248 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 31 seat(s).
Tossups Defended Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are defended by incumbents, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
210 Democrats
222 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 6 seat(s).
Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by challengers, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
214 Democrats
218 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 2 seat(s).
D Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Democratic Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Republican challengers, Republican districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
204 Democrats
228 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 12 seat(s).
R Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Republican Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Democratic challengers, Democratic districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
220 Democrats
212 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 4 seat(s).
PVI moves 1 point D: Districts elect representatives who match a 1-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
215 Democrats
220 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 3 seat(s).
PVI moves 2 points D: Districts elect representatives who match a 2-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
241 Democrats
194 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 24 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with abortion questions: Districts in states where there is an abortion question(currently Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
211 Democrats
224 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 7 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with possible abortion questions: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
214 Democrats
221 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 4 seat(s).
What I think will happen: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 7-point shift in Democratic favor. Democrats defend districts rated, "Toss Up," and flip Republican seats rated "Toss Up" in California, Arizona, and Oregon. Republicans flip seats from NC gerrymander. Democrats flip redistricted AL02. Remaining even districts are defended.
234 Democrats
198 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 18 seat(s).
Robert B. Aderholt (R)
R+33
Nicholas J. Begich (R)
R+6
Abraham J. Hamadeh (R)
R+8
Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
R+23
Doug LaMalfa (R)
Republican
Jared Huffman (D)
Democrat
Kevin Kiley (R)
Republican
Mike Thompson (D)
Democrat
Tom McClintock (R)
Republican
Doris O. Matsui (D)
Democrat
John Garamendi (D)
Democrat
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Democrat
Nancy Pelosi (D)
Democrat
Lateefah Simon (D)
Democrat
Eric Swalwell (D)
Democrat
Kevin Mullin (D)
Democrat
Sam T. Liccardo (D)
Democrat
Jimmy Panetta (D)
Democrat
Vince Fong (R)
Republican
David G. Valadao (R)
Republican
Jay Obernolte (R)
Republican
Salud O. Carbajal (D)
Democrat
Julia Brownley (D)
Democrat
George Whitesides (D)
Democrat
Luz M. Rivas (D)
Democrat
Laura Friedman (D)
Democrat
Gilbert Ray Cisneros (D)
Democrat
Brad Sherman (D)
Democrat
Pete Aguilar (D)
Democrat
Norma J. Torres (D)
Democrat
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
Democrat
Linda T. Sánchez (D)
Democrat
Robert Garcia (D)
Democrat
Maxine Waters (D)
Democrat
Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)
Democrat
J. Luis Correa (D)
Democrat
Darrell Issa (R)
Republican
Scott H. Peters (D)
Democrat
Brittany Pettersen (D)
D+8
John H. Rutherford (R)
R+10
Mike Haridopolos (R)
R+11
Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
R+17
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
R+5
W. Gregory Steube (R)
R+11
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
D+22
Frederica S. Wilson (D)
D+18
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
D+5
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
R+16
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
R+6
Carlos A. Gimenez (R)
R+10
Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R)
R+8
Sanford D. Bishop (D)
D+4
Henry C. "Hank" Johnson (D)
D+27
Richard McCormick (R)
R+11
Barry Loudermilk (R)
R+12
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
R+19
Michael K. Simpson (R)
R+13
Jonathan L. Jackson (D)
D+18
Delia C. Ramirez (D)
D+17
Jesús G. "Chuy" García (D)
D+17
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
D+5
Janice D. Schakowsky (D)
D+19
Bradley Scott Schneider (D)
D+12
Marlin A. Stutzman (R)
R+16
Jefferson Shreve (R)
R+16
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
R+4
Johnny Olszewski (D)
D+10
April McClain Delaney (D)
D+3
James P. McGovern (D)
D+13
Jake Auchincloss (D)
D+11
Katherine M. Clark (D)
D+24
Stephen F. Lynch (D)
D+15
William R. Keating (D)
D+6
John R. Moolenaar (R)
R+15
Hillary J. Scholten (D)
D+4
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
R+1
Michelle Fischbach (R)
R+18
Bennie G. Thompson (D)
D+11
Maggie Goodlander (D)
D+2
Jefferson Van Drew (R)
R+5
Herbert C. Conaway (D)
D+5
Christopher H. Smith (R)
R+14
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
D+13
Melanie A. Stansbury (D)
D+7
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
D+3
Andrew R. Garbarino (R)
R+6
Thomas R. Suozzi (D)
EVEN
Gregory W. Meeks (D)
D+24
Nydia M. Velázquez (D)
D+25
Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)
D+24
Yvette D. Clarke (D)
D+22
Daniel S. Goldman (D)
D+32
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
R+10
Adriano Espaillat (D)
D+32
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
D+19
Elise M. Stefanik (R)
R+10
Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)
R+10
Joseph D. Morelle (D)
D+10
Timothy M. Kennedy (D)
D+11
Gregory F. Murphy (R)
R+6
Valerie P. Foushee (D)
D+23
Addison P. McDowell (R)
R+9
Greg Landsman (D)
Democrat
David J. Taylor (R)
Republican
Joyce Beatty (D)
Democrat
Jim Jordan (R)
Republican
Robert E. Latta (R)
Republican
Michael A. Rulli (R)
Republican
Max L. Miller (R)
Republican
Warren Davidson (R)
Republican
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Democrat
Michael R. Turner (R)
Republican
Shontel M. Brown (D)
Democrat
Troy Balderson (R)
Republican
Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
Democrat
David P. Joyce (R)
Republican
Mike Carey (R)
Republican
Stephanie I. Bice (R)
R+9
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
D+20
Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)
D+1
Brendan F. Boyle (D)
D+19
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
D+15
Robert P. Bresnahan (R)
R+4
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
R+17
Christopher R. Deluzio (D)
D+3
William R. Timmons (R)
R+11
James E. Clyburn (D)
D+13
Diana Harshbarger (R)
R+29
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R)
R+18
Scott DesJarlais (R)
R+21
Michael T. McCaul (R)
R+10
Craig A. Goldman (R)
R+11
Randy K. Sr. Weber (R)
R+12
Monica De La Cruz (R)
R+7
Veronica Escobar (D)
D+11
Jodey C. Arrington (R)
R+25
Sylvia R. Garcia (D)
D+17
Jasmine Crockett (D)
D+25
Blake D. Moore (R)
Republican
Celeste Maloy (R)
Republican
Mike Kennedy (R)
Republican
Burgess Owens (R)
Republican
Robert J. Wittman (R)
R+3
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
EVEN
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
D+18
Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
D+17
Eugene Simon Vindman (D)
D+2
H. Morgan Griffith (R)
R+22
Suhas Subramanyam (D)
D+6
Suzan K. DelBene (D)
D+15
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
R+2
Michael Baumgartner (R)
R+5
Marilyn Strickland (D)
D+9
Derrick Van Orden (R)
R+3
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
R+11
Thomas P. Tiffany (R)
R+11
Harriet M. Hageman (R)
R+23