Solid R: 2
Scenarios
Straight PVI: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. Even seats are defended by incumbents.
208 Democrats
225 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
Straight PVI with flipped evens: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. All seats at 0 +/- are flipped by challengers.
203 Democrats
230 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 14 seat(s).
Tossups Defended Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are defended by incumbents, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
208 Democrats
224 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 8 seat(s).
Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by challengers, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
207 Democrats
225 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
D Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Democratic Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Republican challengers, Republican districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
199 Democrats
233 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 17 seat(s).
R Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Republican Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Democratic challengers, Democratic districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
216 Democrats
216 Republicans
PVI moves 1 point D: Districts elect representatives who match a 1-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
208 Democrats
225 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
PVI moves 2 points D: Districts elect representatives who match a 2-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
405 Democrats
30 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 188 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with abortion questions: Districts in states where there is an abortion question(currently Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
242 Democrats
191 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 26 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with possible abortion questions: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
264 Democrats
170 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 47 seat(s).
What I think will happen: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 7-point shift in Democratic favor. Democrats defend districts rated, "Toss Up," and flip Republican seats rated "Toss Up" in California, Arizona, and Oregon. Republicans flip seats from NC gerrymander. Democrats flip redistricted AL02. Remaining even districts are defended.
267 Democrats
165 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 51 seat(s).
Barry Moore (R)
Republican
Shomari Figures (D)
Democrat
Mike D. Rogers (R)
Republican
Robert B. Aderholt (R)
Republican
Dale W. Strong (R)
Republican
Gary J. Palmer (R)
Republican
Terri A. Sewell (D)
Democrat
Nicholas J. Begich (R)
Republican
David Schweikert (R)
Republican
Elijah Crane (R)
Republican
Yassamin Ansari (D)
Democrat
Greg Stanton (D)
Democrat
Andy Biggs (R)
Republican
Juan Ciscomani (R)
Republican
Abraham J. Hamadeh (R)
Republican
Paul A. Gosar (R)
Republican
Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
Republican
J. French Hill (R)
Republican
Steve Womack (R)
Republican
Bruce Westerman (R)
Republican
Doug LaMalfa (R)
Republican
Jared Huffman (D)
Democrat
Kevin Kiley (R)
Republican
Mike Thompson (D)
Democrat
Tom McClintock (R)
Republican
Doris O. Matsui (D)
Democrat
John Garamendi (D)
Democrat
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Democrat
Nancy Pelosi (D)
Democrat
Lateefah Simon (D)
Democrat
Eric Swalwell (D)
Democrat
Kevin Mullin (D)
Democrat
Sam T. Liccardo (D)
Democrat
Jimmy Panetta (D)
Democrat
Vince Fong (R)
Republican
David G. Valadao (R)
Republican
Jay Obernolte (R)
Republican
Salud O. Carbajal (D)
Democrat
Julia Brownley (D)
Democrat
George Whitesides (D)
Democrat
Luz M. Rivas (D)
Democrat
Laura Friedman (D)
Democrat
Gilbert Ray Cisneros (D)
Democrat
Brad Sherman (D)
Democrat
Pete Aguilar (D)
Democrat
Norma J. Torres (D)
Democrat
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
Democrat
Linda T. Sánchez (D)
Democrat
Ken Calvert (R)
Republican
Robert Garcia (D)
Democrat
Maxine Waters (D)
Democrat
Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)
Democrat
J. Luis Correa (D)
Democrat
Darrell Issa (R)
Republican
Scott H. Peters (D)
Democrat
Diana DeGette (D)
Democrat
Lauren Boebert (R)
Republican
Jeff Crank (R)
Republican
Brittany Pettersen (D)
Democrat
Gabe Evans (R)
Republican
John B. Larson (D)
Democrat
Joe Courtney (D)
Democrat
Rosa L. DeLauro (D)
Democrat
James A. Himes (D)
Democrat
Jahana Hayes (D)
Democrat
Sarah McBride (D)
Democrat
Jimmy Patronis (R)
Republican
Neal P. Dunn (R)
Republican
Kat Cammack (R)
Republican
Aaron Bean (R)
Republican
John H. Rutherford (R)
Republican
Randy Fine (R)
Republican
Cory Mills (R)
Republican
Mike Haridopolos (R)
Republican
Maxwell Frost (D)
Democrat
Daniel Webster (R)
Republican
Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
Republican
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
Republican
Kathy Castor (D)
Democrat
Laurel M. Lee (R)
Republican
Vern Buchanan (R)
Republican
W. Gregory Steube (R)
Republican
Scott Franklin (R)
Republican
Byron Donalds (R)
Republican
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
Democrat
Brian J. Mast (R)
Republican
Lois Frankel (D)
Democrat
Jared Moskowitz (D)
Democrat
Frederica S. Wilson (D)
Democrat
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
Democrat
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
Republican
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
Republican
Carlos A. Gimenez (R)
Republican
Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R)
Republican
Sanford D. Bishop (D)
Democrat
Brian Jack (R)
Republican
Henry C. "Hank" Johnson (D)
Democrat
Nikema Williams (D)
Democrat
Richard McCormick (R)
Republican
Austin Scott (R)
Republican
Andrew S. Clyde (R)
Republican
Mike Collins (R)
Republican
Barry Loudermilk (R)
Republican
Rick W. Allen (R)
Republican
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
Republican
Jill N. Tokuda (D)
Democrat
Russ Fulcher (R)
Republican
Michael K. Simpson (R)
Republican
Jonathan L. Jackson (D)
Democrat
Robin L. Kelly (D)
Democrat
Delia C. Ramirez (D)
Democrat
Jesús G. "Chuy" García (D)
Democrat
Mike Quigley (D)
Democrat
Danny K. Davis (D)
Democrat
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
Democrat
Janice D. Schakowsky (D)
Democrat
Bradley Scott Schneider (D)
Democrat
Nikki Budzinski (D)
Democrat
Lauren Underwood (D)
Democrat
Mary E. Miller (R)
Republican
Darin LaHood (R)
Republican
Eric Sorensen (D)
Democrat
Frank J. Mrvan (D)
Democrat
Rudy Yakym (R)
Republican
Marlin A. Stutzman (R)
Republican
James R. Baird (R)
Republican
Victoria Spartz (R)
Republican
Jefferson Shreve (R)
Republican
André Carson (D)
Democrat
Mark B. Messmer (R)
Republican
Erin Houchin (R)
Republican
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Republican
Ashley Hinson (R)
Republican
Zachary Nunn (R)
Republican
Randy Feenstra (R)
Republican
Tracey Mann (R)
Republican
Derek Schmidt (R)
Republican
Sharice Davids (D)
Democrat
James Comer (R)
Republican
Brett Guthrie (R)
Republican
Morgan McGarvey (D)
Democrat
Thomas Massie (R)
Republican
Harold Rogers (R)
Republican
Steve Scalise (R)
Republican
Troy A. Carter (D)
Democrat
Clay Higgins (R)
Republican
Mike Johnson (R)
Republican
Julia Letlow (R)
Republican
Chellie Pingree (D)
Democrat
Jared F. Golden (D)
Democrat
Andy Harris (R)
Republican
Johnny Olszewski (D)
Democrat
Sarah Elfreth (D)
Democrat
Steny H. Hoyer (D)
Democrat
April McClain Delaney (D)
Democrat
Kweisi Mfume (D)
Democrat
Jamie Raskin (D)
Democrat
Richard E. Neal (D)
Democrat
James P. McGovern (D)
Democrat
Jake Auchincloss (D)
Democrat
Katherine M. Clark (D)
Democrat
Seth Moulton (D)
Democrat
Ayanna Pressley (D)
Democrat
Stephen F. Lynch (D)
Democrat
William R. Keating (D)
Democrat
Jack Bergman (R)
Republican
John R. Moolenaar (R)
Republican
Hillary J. Scholten (D)
Democrat
Bill Huizenga (R)
Republican
Tim Walberg (R)
Republican
Debbie Dingell (D)
Democrat
Tom Barrett (R)
Republican
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
Democrat
Lisa C. McClain (R)
Republican
John James (R)
Republican
Haley M. Stevens (D)
Democrat
Rashida Tlaib (D)
Democrat
Shri Thanedar (D)
Democrat
Brad Finstad (R)
Republican
Kelly Morrison (D)
Democrat
Betty McCollum (D)
Democrat
Michelle Fischbach (R)
Republican
Pete Stauber (R)
Republican
Trent Kelly (R)
Republican
Bennie G. Thompson (D)
Democrat
Michael Guest (R)
Republican
Mike Ezell (R)
Republican
Ann Wagner (R)
Republican
Robert F. Onder (R)
Republican
Mark Alford (R)
Republican
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Democrat
Sam Graves (R)
Republican
Eric Burlison (R)
Republican
Jason Smith (R)
Republican
Ryan K. Zinke (R)
Republican
Troy Downing (R)
Republican
Mike Flood (R)
Republican
Adrian Smith (R)
Republican
Mark E. Amodei (R)
Republican
Steven Horsford (D)
Democrat
Chris Pappas (D)
Democrat
Maggie Goodlander (D)
Democrat
Donald Norcross (D)
Democrat
Jefferson Van Drew (R)
Republican
Herbert C. Conaway (D)
Democrat
Christopher H. Smith (R)
Republican
Josh Gottheimer (D)
Democrat
Frank Pallone (D)
Democrat
Thomas H. Kean (R)
Republican
Robert Menendez (D)
Democrat
LaMonica McIver (D)
Democrat
Mikie Sherrill (D)
Democrat
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
Democrat
Melanie A. Stansbury (D)
Democrat
Gabe Vasquez (D)
Democrat
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
Democrat
Nick LaLota (R)
Republican
Andrew R. Garbarino (R)
Republican
Thomas R. Suozzi (D)
Democrat
Laura Gillen (D)
Democrat
Gregory W. Meeks (D)
Democrat
Nydia M. Velázquez (D)
Democrat
Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)
Democrat
Yvette D. Clarke (D)
Democrat
Daniel S. Goldman (D)
Democrat
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
Republican
Jerrold Nadler (D)
Democrat
Adriano Espaillat (D)
Democrat
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
Democrat
Ritchie Torres (D)
Democrat
George Latimer (D)
Democrat
Michael Lawler (R)
Republican
Patrick Ryan (D)
Democrat
Elise M. Stefanik (R)
Republican
John W. Mannion (D)
Democrat
Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)
Republican
Claudia Tenney (R)
Republican
Joseph D. Morelle (D)
Democrat
Timothy M. Kennedy (D)
Democrat
Donald G. Davis (D)
Democrat
Deborah K. Ross (D)
Democrat
Gregory F. Murphy (R)
Republican
Valerie P. Foushee (D)
Democrat
Virginia Foxx (R)
Republican
Addison P. McDowell (R)
Republican
David Rouzer (R)
Republican
Mark Harris (R)
Republican
Richard Hudson (R)
Republican
Pat Harrigan (R)
Republican
Chuck Edwards (R)
Republican
Alma S. Adams (D)
Democrat
Brad Knott (R)
Republican
Julie Fedorchak (R)
Republican
Greg Landsman (D)
Democrat
David J. Taylor (R)
Republican
Joyce Beatty (D)
Democrat
Jim Jordan (R)
Republican
Robert E. Latta (R)
Republican
Michael A. Rulli (R)
Republican
Max L. Miller (R)
Republican
Warren Davidson (R)
Republican
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Democrat
Michael R. Turner (R)
Republican
Shontel M. Brown (D)
Democrat
Troy Balderson (R)
Republican
Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
Democrat
David P. Joyce (R)
Republican
Mike Carey (R)
Republican
Kevin Hern (R)
Republican
Josh Brecheen (R)
Republican
Frank D. Lucas (R)
Republican
Stephanie I. Bice (R)
Republican
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
Democrat
Cliff Bentz (R)
Republican
Maxine Dexter (D)
Democrat
Val T. Hoyle (D)
Democrat
Janelle S. Bynum (D)
Democrat
Andrea Salinas (D)
Democrat
Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)
Republican
Brendan F. Boyle (D)
Democrat
Dwight Evans (D)
Democrat
Madeleine Dean (D)
Democrat
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
Democrat
Chrissy Houlahan (D)
Democrat
Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Republican
Robert P. Bresnahan (R)
Republican
Daniel Meuser (R)
Republican
Scott Perry (R)
Republican
Lloyd Smucker (R)
Republican
Summer L. Lee (D)
Democrat
John Joyce (R)
Republican
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
Republican
Glenn Thompson (R)
Republican
Mike Kelly (R)
Republican
Christopher R. Deluzio (D)
Democrat
Seth Magaziner (D)
Democrat
Nancy Mace (R)
Republican
Joe Wilson (R)
Republican
Sheri Biggs (R)
Republican
William R. Timmons (R)
Republican
Ralph Norman (R)
Republican
James E. Clyburn (D)
Democrat
Russell Fry (R)
Republican
Dusty Johnson (R)
Republican
Diana Harshbarger (R)
Republican
Tim Burchett (R)
Republican
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R)
Republican
Scott DesJarlais (R)
Republican
Andrew Ogles (R)
Republican
John W. Rose (R)
Republican
Mark E. Green (R)
Republican
David Kustoff (R)
Republican
Michael T. McCaul (R)
R+10
Craig A. Goldman (R)
R+11
Randy K. Sr. Weber (R)
R+12
Monica De La Cruz (R)
R+7
Veronica Escobar (D)
D+11
Jodey C. Arrington (R)
R+25
Sylvia R. Garcia (D)
D+17
Jasmine Crockett (D)
D+25
Blake D. Moore (R)
Republican
Celeste Maloy (R)
Republican
Mike Kennedy (R)
Republican
Burgess Owens (R)
Republican
Becca Balint (D)
Democrat
Robert J. Wittman (R)
Republican
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
Republican
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
Democrat
Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
Democrat
John J. McGuire (R)
Republican
Eugene Simon Vindman (D)
Democrat
Donald S. Beyer (D)
Democrat
H. Morgan Griffith (R)
Republican
Suhas Subramanyam (D)
Democrat
Suzan K. DelBene (D)
Democrat
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Democrat
Dan Newhouse (R)
Republican
Michael Baumgartner (R)
Republican
Emily Randall (D)
Democrat
Pramila Jayapal (D)
Democrat
Marilyn Strickland (D)
Democrat
Carol D. Miller (R)
Republican
Riley M. Moore (R)
Republican
Bryan Steil (R)
Republican
Derrick Van Orden (R)
Republican
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
Republican
Glenn Grothman (R)
Republican
Thomas P. Tiffany (R)
Republican
Harriet M. Hageman (R)
Republican