Solid R: 2
Scenarios
Straight PVI: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. Even seats are defended by incumbents.
208 Democrats
226 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
Straight PVI with flipped evens: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. All seats at 0 +/- are flipped by challengers.
187 Democrats
247 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 30 seat(s).
Tossups Defended Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are defended by incumbents, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
210 Democrats
222 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 6 seat(s).
Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by challengers, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
213 Democrats
219 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 3 seat(s).
D Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Democratic Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Republican challengers, Republican districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
203 Democrats
229 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 13 seat(s).
R Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Republican Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Democratic challengers, Democratic districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
220 Democrats
212 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 4 seat(s).
PVI moves 1 point D: Districts elect representatives who match a 1-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
213 Democrats
221 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 4 seat(s).
PVI moves 2 points D: Districts elect representatives who match a 2-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
307 Democrats
128 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 90 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with abortion questions: Districts in states where there is an abortion question(currently Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
217 Democrats
217 Republicans
PVI moves 5 points D in states with possible abortion questions: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
221 Democrats
213 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 4 seat(s).
What I think will happen: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 7-point shift in Democratic favor. Democrats defend districts rated, "Toss Up," and flip Republican seats rated "Toss Up" in California, Arizona, and Oregon. Republicans flip seats from NC gerrymander. Democrats flip redistricted AL02. Remaining even districts are defended.
239 Democrats
193 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 23 seat(s).
Robert B. Aderholt (R)
R+33
Nicholas J. Begich (R)
R+6
Abraham J. Hamadeh (R)
R+8
Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
R+23
Doug LaMalfa (R)
Republican
Jared Huffman (D)
Democrat
Kevin Kiley (R)
Republican
Mike Thompson (D)
Democrat
Tom McClintock (R)
Republican
Doris O. Matsui (D)
Democrat
John Garamendi (D)
Democrat
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Democrat
Nancy Pelosi (D)
Democrat
Lateefah Simon (D)
Democrat
Eric Swalwell (D)
Democrat
Kevin Mullin (D)
Democrat
Sam T. Liccardo (D)
Democrat
Jimmy Panetta (D)
Democrat
Vince Fong (R)
Republican
David G. Valadao (R)
Republican
Jay Obernolte (R)
Republican
Salud O. Carbajal (D)
Democrat
Julia Brownley (D)
Democrat
George Whitesides (D)
Democrat
Luz M. Rivas (D)
Democrat
Laura Friedman (D)
Democrat
Gilbert Ray Cisneros (D)
Democrat
Brad Sherman (D)
Democrat
Pete Aguilar (D)
Democrat
Norma J. Torres (D)
Democrat
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
Democrat
Linda T. Sánchez (D)
Democrat
Ken Calvert (R)
Republican
Robert Garcia (D)
Democrat
Maxine Waters (D)
Democrat
Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)
Democrat
J. Luis Correa (D)
Democrat
Darrell Issa (R)
Republican
Scott H. Peters (D)
Democrat
Brittany Pettersen (D)
D+8
John H. Rutherford (R)
R+10
Mike Haridopolos (R)
R+11
Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
R+17
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
R+5
W. Gregory Steube (R)
R+11
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
D+22
Frederica S. Wilson (D)
D+18
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
D+5
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
R+16
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
R+6
Carlos A. Gimenez (R)
R+10
Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R)
R+8
Sanford D. Bishop (D)
D+4
Henry C. "Hank" Johnson (D)
D+27
Richard McCormick (R)
R+11
Barry Loudermilk (R)
R+12
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
R+19
Michael K. Simpson (R)
R+13
Jonathan L. Jackson (D)
D+18
Delia C. Ramirez (D)
D+17
Jesús G. "Chuy" García (D)
D+17
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
D+5
Janice D. Schakowsky (D)
D+19
Bradley Scott Schneider (D)
D+12
Marlin A. Stutzman (R)
R+16
Jefferson Shreve (R)
R+16
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
R+4
Johnny Olszewski (D)
D+10
April McClain Delaney (D)
D+3
James P. McGovern (D)
D+13
Jake Auchincloss (D)
D+11
Katherine M. Clark (D)
D+24
Stephen F. Lynch (D)
D+15
William R. Keating (D)
D+6
John R. Moolenaar (R)
R+15
Hillary J. Scholten (D)
D+4
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
R+1
Michelle Fischbach (R)
R+18
Bennie G. Thompson (D)
D+11
Sam Graves (R)
Republican
Chris Pappas (D)
Democrat
Maggie Goodlander (D)
Democrat
Donald Norcross (D)
Democrat
Jefferson Van Drew (R)
Republican
Herbert C. Conaway (D)
Democrat
Christopher H. Smith (R)
Republican
Josh Gottheimer (D)
Democrat
Frank Pallone (D)
Democrat
Thomas H. Kean (R)
Republican
Robert Menendez (D)
Democrat
LaMonica McIver (D)
Democrat
Mikie Sherrill (D)
Democrat
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
Democrat
Melanie A. Stansbury (D)
Democrat
Gabe Vasquez (D)
Democrat
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
Democrat
Nick LaLota (R)
Republican
Andrew R. Garbarino (R)
Republican
Thomas R. Suozzi (D)
Democrat
Laura Gillen (D)
Democrat
Gregory W. Meeks (D)
Democrat
Nydia M. Velázquez (D)
Democrat
Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)
Democrat
Yvette D. Clarke (D)
Democrat
Daniel S. Goldman (D)
Democrat
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
Republican
Jerrold Nadler (D)
Democrat
Adriano Espaillat (D)
Democrat
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
Democrat
Ritchie Torres (D)
Democrat
George Latimer (D)
Democrat
Michael Lawler (R)
Republican
Patrick Ryan (D)
Democrat
Elise M. Stefanik (R)
Republican
John W. Mannion (D)
Democrat
Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)
Republican
Claudia Tenney (R)
Republican
Joseph D. Morelle (D)
Democrat
Timothy M. Kennedy (D)
Democrat
Donald G. Davis (D)
Democrat
Deborah K. Ross (D)
Democrat
Gregory F. Murphy (R)
Republican
Valerie P. Foushee (D)
Democrat
Virginia Foxx (R)
Republican
Addison P. McDowell (R)
Republican
David Rouzer (R)
Republican
Mark Harris (R)
Republican
Richard Hudson (R)
Republican
Pat Harrigan (R)
Republican
Chuck Edwards (R)
Republican
Alma S. Adams (D)
Democrat
Brad Knott (R)
Republican
Julie Fedorchak (R)
Republican
Greg Landsman (D)
Democrat
David J. Taylor (R)
Republican
Joyce Beatty (D)
Democrat
Jim Jordan (R)
Republican
Robert E. Latta (R)
Republican
Michael A. Rulli (R)
Republican
Max L. Miller (R)
Republican
Warren Davidson (R)
Republican
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Democrat
Michael R. Turner (R)
Republican
Shontel M. Brown (D)
Democrat
Troy Balderson (R)
Republican
Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
Democrat
David P. Joyce (R)
Republican
Mike Carey (R)
Republican
Kevin Hern (R)
Republican
Josh Brecheen (R)
Republican
Frank D. Lucas (R)
Republican
Stephanie I. Bice (R)
Republican
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
Democrat
Cliff Bentz (R)
Republican
Maxine Dexter (D)
Democrat
Val T. Hoyle (D)
Democrat
Janelle S. Bynum (D)
Democrat
Andrea Salinas (D)
Democrat
Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)
Republican
Brendan F. Boyle (D)
Democrat
Dwight Evans (D)
Democrat
Madeleine Dean (D)
Democrat
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
Democrat
Chrissy Houlahan (D)
Democrat
Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Republican
Robert P. Bresnahan (R)
Republican
Daniel Meuser (R)
Republican
Scott Perry (R)
Republican
Lloyd Smucker (R)
Republican
Summer L. Lee (D)
Democrat
John Joyce (R)
Republican
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
Republican
Glenn Thompson (R)
Republican
Mike Kelly (R)
Republican
Christopher R. Deluzio (D)
Democrat
Seth Magaziner (D)
Democrat
Nancy Mace (R)
Republican
Joe Wilson (R)
Republican
Sheri Biggs (R)
Republican
William R. Timmons (R)
Republican
Ralph Norman (R)
Republican
James E. Clyburn (D)
Democrat
Russell Fry (R)
Republican
Dusty Johnson (R)
Republican
Diana Harshbarger (R)
Republican
Tim Burchett (R)
Republican
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R)
Republican
Scott DesJarlais (R)
Republican
Andrew Ogles (R)
Republican
John W. Rose (R)
Republican
Mark E. Green (R)
Republican
David Kustoff (R)
Republican
Michael T. McCaul (R)
R+10
Craig A. Goldman (R)
R+11
Randy K. Sr. Weber (R)
R+12
Monica De La Cruz (R)
R+7
Veronica Escobar (D)
D+11
Jodey C. Arrington (R)
R+25
Sylvia R. Garcia (D)
D+17
Jasmine Crockett (D)
D+25
Blake D. Moore (R)
Republican
Celeste Maloy (R)
Republican
Mike Kennedy (R)
Republican
Burgess Owens (R)
Republican
Becca Balint (D)
Democrat
Robert J. Wittman (R)
Republican
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
Republican
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
Democrat
Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
Democrat
John J. McGuire (R)
Republican
Eugene Simon Vindman (D)
Democrat
Donald S. Beyer (D)
Democrat
H. Morgan Griffith (R)
Republican
Suhas Subramanyam (D)
Democrat
Suzan K. DelBene (D)
Democrat
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Democrat
Dan Newhouse (R)
Republican
Michael Baumgartner (R)
Republican
Emily Randall (D)
Democrat
Pramila Jayapal (D)
Democrat
Marilyn Strickland (D)
Democrat
Carol D. Miller (R)
Republican
Riley M. Moore (R)
Republican
Bryan Steil (R)
Republican
Derrick Van Orden (R)
Republican
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
Republican
Glenn Grothman (R)
Republican
Thomas P. Tiffany (R)
Republican
Harriet M. Hageman (R)
Republican