Solid R: 4
Scenarios
Straight PVI: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. Even seats are defended by incumbents.
210 Democrats
225 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 8 seat(s).
Straight PVI with flipped evens: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. All seats at 0 +/- are flipped by challengers.
210 Democrats
225 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 8 seat(s).
Tossups Defended Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are defended by incumbents, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
212 Democrats
219 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 4 seat(s).
Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by challengers, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
214 Democrats
217 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 2 seat(s).
D Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Democratic Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Republican challengers, Republican districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
202 Democrats
229 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 14 seat(s).
R Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Republican Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Democratic challengers, Democratic districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
224 Democrats
207 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 9 seat(s).
PVI moves 1 point D: Districts elect representatives who match a 1-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
217 Democrats
218 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 1 seat(s).
PVI moves 2 points D: Districts elect representatives who match a 2-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
222 Democrats
213 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 5 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with abortion questions: Districts in states where there is an abortion question(currently Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
216 Democrats
219 Republicans
Republicans hold the House by 2 seat(s).
PVI moves 5 points D in states with possible abortion questions: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
219 Democrats
216 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 2 seat(s).
What I think will happen: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 7-point shift in Democratic favor. Democrats defend districts rated, "Toss Up," and flip Republican seats rated "Toss Up" in California, Arizona, and Oregon. Republicans flip seats from NC gerrymander. Democrats flip redistricted AL02. Remaining even districts are defended.
236 Democrats
195 Republicans
Democrats take the House by 21 seat(s).
Robert B. Aderholt (R)
R+33
Mary Sattler Peltola (D)
R+8
Raúl M. Grijalva (D)
D+15
Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
R+22
Salud O. Carbajal (D)
D+13
Grace F. Napolitano (D)
D+15
Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
D+37
Linda T. Sánchez (D)
D+14
Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)
D+24
Brittany Pettersen (D)
D+4
Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
D+7
John H. Rutherford (R)
R+11
Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
R+17
Anna Paulina Luna (R)
R+6
W. Gregory Steube (R)
R+10
C. Scott Franklin (R)
R+13
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
D+25
Frederica S. Wilson (D)
D+25
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
D+9
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
R+8
Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
EVEN
Carlos A. Gimenez (R)
R+2
Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R)
R+9
Sanford D. Bishop (D)
D+3
A. Drew Ferguson (R)
R+18
Henry C. "Hank" Johnson (D)
D+27
Richard McCormick (R)
D+22
Barry Loudermilk (R)
R+14
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
R+22
Michael K. Simpson (R)
R+14
Jonathan L. Jackson (D)
D+20
Delia C. Ramirez (D)
D+20
Jesús G. "Chuy" GarcÃa (D)
D+22
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
D+6
Janice D. Schakowsky (D)
D+19
Bradley Scott Schneider (D)
D+11
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
R+3
C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
D+7
John P. Sarbanes (D)
D+10
James P. McGovern (D)
D+13
Jake Auchincloss (D)
D+12
Katherine M. Clark (D)
D+23
Stephen F. Lynch (D)
D+15
William R. Keating (D)
D+6
John R. Moolenaar (R)
R+16
Hillary J. Scholten (D)
D+1
Michelle Fischbach (R)
R+19
Bennie G. Thompson (D)
D+11
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
R+16
Matthew M. Rosendale (R)
R+16
Jefferson Van Drew (R)
R+5
Christopher H. Smith (R)
R+14
Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
D+12
Melanie A. Stansbury (D)
D+5
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
D+4
Andrew R. Garbarino (R)
R+4
Anthony D'Esposito (R)
D+5
Gregory W. Meeks (D)
D+30
Nydia M. Velázquez (D)
D+30
Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)
D+27
Yvette D. Clarke (D)
D+25
Daniel S. Goldman (D)
D+34
Nicole Malliotakis (R)
R+6
Adriano Espaillat (D)
D+38
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
D+27
Marcus J. Molinaro (R)
R+1
Elise M. Stefanik (R)
R+10
Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)
R+12
Joseph D. Morelle (D)
D+8
Timothy M. Kennedy (D)
D+10
Gregory F. Murphy (R)
R+11
Valerie P. Foushee (D)
D+21
Kathy E. Manning (D)
R+11
Patrick T. McHenry (R)
R+10
Brad R. Wenstrup (R)
R+25
Michael A. Rulli (R)
R+16
Michael R. Turner (R)
R+4
Shontel M. Brown (D)
D+28
Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
R+1
Stephanie I. Bice (R)
R+12
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
D+18
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
D+2
Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)
EVEN
Brendan F. Boyle (D)
D+20
Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
D+14
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
R+18
Christopher R. Deluzio (D)
EVEN
William R. Timmons (R)
R+12
James E. Clyburn (D)
D+14
Diana Harshbarger (R)
R+30
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R)
R+19
Scott DesJarlais (R)
R+22
Michael T. McCaul (R)
R+13
Monica De La Cruz (R)
R+1
Veronica Escobar (D)
D+17
Jodey C. Arrington (R)
R+26
Michael C. Burgess (R)
R+13
Sylvia R. Garcia (D)
D+18
Jasmine Crockett (D)
D+27
Robert J. Wittman (R)
R+6
Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
R+2
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
D+17
Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
D+16
Abigail Davis Spanberger (D)
D+1
H. Morgan Griffith (R)
R+23
Gerald E. Connolly (D)
D+18
Suzan K. DelBene (D)
D+13
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
R+5
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
R+8
Marilyn Strickland (D)
D+7
Alexander X. Mooney (R)
R+22
Derrick Van Orden (R)
R+4
Scott Fitzgerald (R)
R+14
Thomas P. Tiffany (R)
R+12
Harriet M. Hageman (R)
R+25