Solid R: 2
	
Scenarios
	Straight PVI: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. Even seats are defended by incumbents.
	
 
	
		208 Democrats
		226 Republicans
	 
	
		Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	Straight PVI with flipped evens: Districts elect representatives who match the partisan lean indicated by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index. All seats at 0 +/- are flipped by challengers.
	
 
	
		195 Democrats
		239 Republicans
	 
	
		Republicans hold the House by 22 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	Tossups Defended Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are defended by incumbents, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
	
 
	
		207 Democrats
		225 Republicans
	 
	
		Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by challengers, seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
	
 
	
		207 Democrats
		225 Republicans
	 
	
		Republicans hold the House by 9 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	D Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Democratic Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Republican challengers, Republican districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
	
 
	
		199 Democrats
		233 Republicans
	 
	
		Republicans hold the House by 17 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	R Tossups Flipped Lean Likely Solid Flipped: Republican Districts rated "Toss Up" are flipped by Democratic challengers, Democratic districts rated "Toss Up" are defended. Seats rated "Lean," "Likely," and "Solid" for the challenging party are flipped.
	
 
	
		215 Democrats
		217 Republicans
	 
	
		Republicans hold the House by 1 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	PVI moves 1 point D: Districts elect representatives who match a 1-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
	
 
	
		211 Democrats
		223 Republicans
	 
	
		Republicans hold the House by 6 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	PVI moves 2 points D: Districts elect representatives who match a 2-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
	
 
	
		330 Democrats
		105 Republicans
	 
	
		Democrats take the House by 113 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	PVI moves 5 points D in states with abortion questions: Districts in states where there is an abortion question(currently Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
	
 
	
		218 Democrats
		216 Republicans
	 
	
		Democrats take the House by 1 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	PVI moves 5 points D in states with possible abortion questions: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 5-point shift in Democratic favor. Even districts are defended.
	
 
	
		231 Democrats
		203 Republicans
	 
	
		Democrats take the House by 14 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	What I think will happen: Districts in states where there is a proposed abortion question(NY, MD, CO, AZ, FL, AR, MO, MT, NE, NV, and SD) on the ballot elect representatives who match a 7-point shift in Democratic favor. Democrats defend districts rated, "Toss Up," and flip Republican seats rated "Toss Up" in California, Arizona, and Oregon. Republicans flip seats from NC gerrymander. Democrats flip redistricted AL02. Remaining even districts are defended.
	
 
	
		241 Democrats
		191 Republicans
	 
	
		Democrats take the House by 25 seat(s).
	 
	
	
 
	
	Robert B. Aderholt (R)
	R+33
	
 
	
	Nicholas J. Begich (R)
	R+6
	
 
	
	Abraham J. Hamadeh (R)
	R+8
	
 
	
	Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
	R+23
	
 
	
	Doug LaMalfa (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Jared Huffman (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Kevin Kiley (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mike Thompson (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Tom McClintock (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Doris O. Matsui (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	John Garamendi (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Mark DeSaulnier (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Nancy Pelosi (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Lateefah Simon (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Eric Swalwell (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Kevin Mullin (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Sam T. Liccardo (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Jimmy Panetta (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Vince Fong (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	David G. Valadao (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Jay Obernolte (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Salud O. Carbajal (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Julia Brownley (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	George Whitesides (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Luz M. Rivas (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Laura Friedman (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Gilbert Ray Cisneros (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Brad Sherman (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Pete Aguilar (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Norma J. Torres (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Linda T. Sánchez (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Ken Calvert (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Robert Garcia (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Maxine Waters (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	J. Luis Correa (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Darrell Issa (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Scott H. Peters (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Brittany Pettersen (D)
	D+8
	
 
	
	John H. Rutherford (R)
	R+10
	
 
	
	Mike Haridopolos (R)
	R+11
	
 
	
	Gus M. Bilirakis (R)
	R+17
	
 
	
	Anna Paulina Luna (R)
	R+5
	
 
	
	W. Gregory Steube (R)
	R+11
	
 
	
	Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
	D+22
	
 
	
	Frederica S. Wilson (D)
	D+18
	
 
	
	Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
	D+5
	
 
	
	Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
	R+16
	
 
	
	Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
	R+6
	
 
	
	Carlos A. Gimenez (R)
	R+10
	
 
	
	Earl L. "Buddy" Carter (R)
	R+8
	
 
	
	Sanford D. Bishop (D)
	D+4
	
 
	
	Henry C. "Hank" Johnson (D)
	D+27
	
 
	
	Richard McCormick (R)
	R+11
	
 
	
	Barry Loudermilk (R)
	R+12
	
 
	
	Marjorie Taylor Greene (R)
	R+19
	
 
	
	Michael K. Simpson (R)
	R+13
	
 
	
	Jonathan L. Jackson (D)
	D+18
	
 
	
	Delia C. Ramirez (D)
	D+17
	
 
	
	Jesús G. "Chuy" García (D)
	D+17
	
 
	
	Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
	D+5
	
 
	
	Janice D. Schakowsky (D)
	D+19
	
 
	
	Bradley Scott Schneider (D)
	D+12
	
 
	
	Marlin A. Stutzman (R)
	R+16
	
 
	
	Jefferson Shreve (R)
	R+16
	
 
	
	Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
	R+4
	
 
	
	Johnny Olszewski (D)
	D+10
	
 
	
	April McClain Delaney (D)
	D+3
	
 
	
	James P. McGovern (D)
	D+13
	
 
	
	Jake Auchincloss (D)
	D+11
	
 
	
	Katherine M. Clark (D)
	D+24
	
 
	
	Stephen F. Lynch (D)
	D+15
	
 
	
	William R. Keating (D)
	D+6
	
 
	
	Jack Bergman (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	John R. Moolenaar (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Hillary J. Scholten (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Bill Huizenga (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Tim Walberg (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Debbie Dingell (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Tom Barrett (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Lisa C. McClain (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	John James (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Haley M. Stevens (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Rashida Tlaib (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Shri Thanedar (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Brad Finstad (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Kelly Morrison (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Betty McCollum (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Michelle Fischbach (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Pete Stauber (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Trent Kelly (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Bennie G. Thompson (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Michael Guest (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mike Ezell (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Ann Wagner (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Robert F. Onder (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mark Alford (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Emanuel Cleaver (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Sam Graves (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Eric Burlison (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Jason Smith (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Ryan K. Zinke (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Troy Downing (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mike Flood (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Adrian Smith (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mark E. Amodei (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Steven Horsford (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Chris Pappas (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Maggie Goodlander (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Donald Norcross (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Jefferson Van Drew (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Herbert C. Conaway (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Christopher H. Smith (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Josh Gottheimer (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Frank Pallone (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Thomas H. Kean (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Robert Menendez (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	LaMonica McIver (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Mikie Sherrill (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Melanie A. Stansbury (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Gabe Vasquez (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Nick LaLota (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Andrew R. Garbarino (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Thomas R. Suozzi (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Laura Gillen (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Gregory W. Meeks (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Nydia M. Velázquez (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Yvette D. Clarke (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Daniel S. Goldman (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Nicole Malliotakis (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Jerrold Nadler (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Adriano Espaillat (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Ritchie Torres (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	George Latimer (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Michael Lawler (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Patrick Ryan (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Elise M. Stefanik (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	John W. Mannion (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Nicholas A. Langworthy (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Claudia Tenney (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Joseph D. Morelle (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Timothy M. Kennedy (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Donald G. Davis (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Deborah K. Ross (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Gregory F. Murphy (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Valerie P. Foushee (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Virginia Foxx (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Addison P. McDowell (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	David Rouzer (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mark Harris (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Richard Hudson (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Pat Harrigan (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Chuck Edwards (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Alma S. Adams (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Brad Knott (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Julie Fedorchak (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Greg Landsman (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	David J. Taylor (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Joyce Beatty (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Jim Jordan (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Robert E. Latta (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Michael A. Rulli (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Max L. Miller (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Warren Davidson (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Marcy Kaptur (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Michael R. Turner (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Shontel M. Brown (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Troy Balderson (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Emilia Strong Sykes (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	David P. Joyce (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mike Carey (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Kevin Hern (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Josh Brecheen (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Frank D. Lucas (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Stephanie I. Bice (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Suzanne Bonamici (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Cliff Bentz (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Maxine Dexter (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Val T. Hoyle (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Janelle S. Bynum (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Andrea Salinas (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Brendan F. Boyle (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Dwight Evans (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Madeleine Dean (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Mary Gay Scanlon (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Chrissy Houlahan (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Ryan Mackenzie (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Robert P. Bresnahan (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Daniel Meuser (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Scott Perry (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Lloyd Smucker (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Summer L. Lee (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	John Joyce (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Guy Reschenthaler (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Glenn Thompson (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mike Kelly (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Christopher R. Deluzio (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Seth Magaziner (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Nancy Mace (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Joe Wilson (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Sheri Biggs (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	William R. Timmons (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Ralph Norman (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	James E. Clyburn (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Russell Fry (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Dusty Johnson (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Diana Harshbarger (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Tim Burchett (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Scott DesJarlais (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Andrew Ogles (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	John W. Rose (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mark E. Green (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	David Kustoff (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Michael T. McCaul (R)
	R+10
	
 
	
	Craig A. Goldman (R)
	R+11
	
 
	
	Randy K. Sr. Weber (R)
	R+12
	
 
	
	Monica De La Cruz (R)
	R+7
	
 
	
	Veronica Escobar (D)
	D+11
	
 
	
	Jodey C. Arrington (R)
	R+25
	
 
	
	Sylvia R. Garcia (D)
	D+17
	
 
	
	Jasmine Crockett (D)
	D+25
	
 
	
	Blake D. Moore (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Celeste Maloy (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Mike Kennedy (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Burgess Owens (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Becca Balint (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Robert J. Wittman (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Jennifer A. Kiggans (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Jennifer L. McClellan (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	John J. McGuire (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Eugene Simon Vindman (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Donald S. Beyer (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	H. Morgan Griffith (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Suhas Subramanyam (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Suzan K. DelBene (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Dan Newhouse (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Michael Baumgartner (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Emily Randall (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Pramila Jayapal (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Marilyn Strickland (D)
	Democrat
	
 
	
	Carol D. Miller (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Riley M. Moore (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Bryan Steil (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Derrick Van Orden (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Scott Fitzgerald (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Glenn Grothman (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Thomas P. Tiffany (R)
	Republican
	
 
	
	Harriet M. Hageman (R)
	Republican